Can Obama Win Pennsylvania?

Hillary and the talking heads would like you to think it's in doubt that Obama can win in Pennsylvania in the general election. I keep hearing that maybe 40% of Hillary's voters will either stay home or vote for McCain -- ooooh! Scary!

Let's work the numbers -- from the Commonwealth's website:

Democratic Primary

Candidate Votes Percent
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)
1,260,937 54.6%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)
1,046,822 45.4%

Republican Primary

Candidate Votes Percent
HUCKABEE, MIKE (REP)
89,581 11.3%
MCCAIN, JOHN (REP)
574,779 72.8%
PAUL, RON (REP)
125,604 15.9%

So OK -- I doubt that people who today support Huckabee & Paul will suddenly hold their noses and switch to McCain in the general -- but let's say 1/2 do -- and let's say all of those folks who said they'll either vote for McCain or stay home rather than vote for Obama all show up for McCain -- that theoretically would give McCain 997,606 votes or 49 thousand less than Obama got in the primary.

Remind me again -- why does the MSM keep talking about McCain / Obama like it's a real match up?